France’s gambling authority, the Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), is examining Polymarket, a decentralized cryptocurrency-based prediction platform that has surged in popularity, especially around betting markets tied to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Amid this growing engagement, the ANJ confirmed it is assessing Polymarket’s compliance with French gambling legislation, with the potential for a nationwide ban if found in violation.

Polymarket, based in New York, operates as a decentralized marketplace where users can bet on real-world events using cryptocurrency. Although the platform restricts access to U.S. residents, users in other regions, including France, have been actively participating. According to Dune Analytics data, Polymarket has attracted over $2.5 billion in wagers, much of it centered on speculation over the U.S. election outcome. One notable French user, a trader using the pseudonym “Fredi9999,” reportedly placed $20 million in bets supporting Donald Trump, with potential profits estimated to reach $50 million if successful.

The Core Issues

The ANJ is focusing on whether Polymarket’s activities breach French laws governing gambling despite the platform’s crypto-based structure. An ANJ spokesperson clarified that even though Polymarket operates via cryptocurrency, it is still considered a betting activity and, therefore, subject to France’s gambling regulations. Legal sources close to the ANJ have stated that the platform’s use of cryptocurrency does not exempt it from the legal definition of gambling, meaning it falls under the authority’s purview.

William O’Rorke, a partner at ORWL Avocats, explained that Polymarket’s model closely resembles traditional betting structures, noting that the essence of the platform is to place money on uncertain outcomes, which legally qualifies it as gambling. He compared it to a sportsbook, highlighting that the ANJ’s regulatory authority enables it to restrict access to Polymarket even if it does not specifically target French users.

If the ANJ ultimately enforces a ban, the decision could set a regulatory precedent in Europe as other jurisdictions confront the growing presence of cryptocurrency-based prediction markets. For Polymarket, a ban in France would signal the significant hurdles decentralized platforms face in operating across diverse regulatory environments and could challenge the platform’s expansion into regulated markets.